Covid-19 model

Inputs

Important notice

Rough numbers, based on sources and rough estimations where data is not (yet) available. Do not base important decisions on your health on the results of this model

As some countries stopped testing of Covid-19, this simple model can help guide around growth rate, true cases and potential impact for you based on your age, sex and existing pre-conditions. Needless to say, very indicative particularly in terms of the impact of existing pre-conditions.

Please stay safe, take care of eachother and wash your hands.
These are assumptions about your community. You can either set the population and current deaths to either your city or whole country
These are assumptions about you to determine the probability of death, given that you will be infected. The list of pre-existing conditions below link to a VERY rudimentary model of how they affect the death rate
Below are key assumptions on the death and growth rate of Covid-19
%
days
days

True cases

Estimated true cases of infection by days from now. First point shows estimated true cases today

Results

True cases today

Infections in your community

New infections tomorrow

Estimated growth coming 24 hours

New infections in a week

Counting from today

Already infected

Already infected right now

Death, if you are infected

VERY rough. Takes pre-existing conditions into account

Death, if you are infected

Only based on your age and sex

Impact if you get infected

Red people indicates the probability out of 100 that you die. VERY indicative